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Vera Rubin Is Live. The Stock Is Lagging.

On June 1, 2026, Jensen Huang took the stage at GTC Taipei and said it plainly: Vera Rubin is in full production. Not sampling. Not qualification runs. Full production, with customers expected to receive systems as early as Q3 of this year.

Here’s the thing. The stock is up roughly 7% year-to-date as of late June. The business just reported its largest quarter in history. Those two facts don’t fit together neatly, and that gap is worth paying attention to.

What the Income Statement Actually Says

Fiscal Q1 2027, reported May 20, 2026. Revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year and up 20% from the prior quarter. Data center revenue hit $75.2 billion, up 92% year over year. GAAP gross margin was 74.9%. Non-GAAP EPS landed at $1.87, beating the Wall Street consensus of $1.76 by about 6%.

The Q2 FY2027 guide: $91 billion in revenue. With zero China Data Center compute revenue assumed in that figure. That’s a notable detail. It means the guide is conservative by construction, and the company is still accelerating.

One more thing that doesn’t get enough attention: NVIDIA raised its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share and added an $80 billion share repurchase authorization in the same breath as those results. That’s a company signaling confidence in its own cash flow durability.

Vera Rubin: What Changed and Why It Matters

The Vera Rubin NVL72 rack delivers 10x agent throughput at scale compared to the prior Grace Blackwell generation. It trains mixture-of-experts models using one-fourth the number of GPUs that Blackwell required. Inference cost per token drops by a factor of ten.

For context on the production ramp: over 350 factories across 30 countries are currently manufacturing Vera Rubin systems, including 150 partners in Taiwan alone. The first confirmed cloud deployments will come from AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, and Nscale. Microsoft is specifically deploying NVL72 rack-scale systems at its next-generation Fairwater AI superfactory sites.

Worth flagging: Jensen Huang said in Taipei that while the supply chain is fully activated, NVIDIA remains supply-constrained. Demand is not the limiting factor here.

The Sovereign AI Number People Keep Underweighting

Sovereign AI, meaning governments building national compute infrastructure, generated over $30 billion in NVIDIA’s fiscal 2026 revenue. That’s more than triple the prior year. It represented roughly 14% of NVIDIA’s total annual revenue of $215.9 billion.

France deployed 18,000 Grace Blackwell systems. The UK, Netherlands, Canada, and Singapore are confirmed contributors. Deutsche Telekom is running what NVIDIA describes as the world’s first industrial AI cloud on its hardware. This is a demand category that was barely a line item two years ago. Now it’s a $30 billion segment growing faster than the overall business.

Slight tangent, but it matters: the customer base is quietly diversifying. Six months ago, hyperscalers accounted for the majority of data center revenue. As of Q1 FY27, that split is roughly even between hyperscalers and the combined bucket of sovereign buyers, enterprise on-prem, and AI cloud providers. The concentration risk that bears have leaned on for two years is structurally smaller than it was.

The Real Risks

The bear case deserves a fair read. Hyperscalers are all developing custom silicon and have a long-term incentive to reduce their NVIDIA dependency. China data center revenue is not in NVIDIA’s own forward guidance at all, and that’s a real constraint. There are also legitimate questions about whether NVIDIA’s valuation multiple is justified given competitive pressure building on multiple fronts.

The counter is equally real. NVIDIA still runs every major frontier AI model. Inference is growing faster than training, and Vera Rubin was built specifically for that shift. The sovereign and enterprise demand base is widening the revenue floor. And the company is guiding to $91 billion next quarter with China essentially zeroed out.

The stock is sitting near $196, off its all-time high of $236.54, up about 7% on the year while the business has grown 85% in revenue. The platform transition is live. The second half is when Vera Rubin starts landing at customers. That’s where we are.

Take a closer look before Q3 results close that gap.

For informational purposes only.