The Final Melt Up

July 16, 2026

BlackRock Just Hit $15 Trillion


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Dear Reader,

I hope you’re paying attention to what’s happening in the stock market…

Because history is repeating itself in a way that only happens once in a generation.

In 1999, as the dot-com bubble roared toward its final, explosive peak, three mega-IPOs hit the market in rapid succession: UPS, Goldman Sachs, and AT&T Wireless.

They were household names… And their IPOs were so hot, they nearly broke Wall Street.

Within five short months, the Nasdaq nearly doubled during a phenomenon known as a “Melt Up.” Many individual stocks went parabolic, soaring 300%, 500%, even 1,000% or more.

Now, let’s fast forward to 2026…

Three mega-IPOs debuting, all household names: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

SpaceX alone was the single biggest IPO event in history. And it’s the clearest signal we’ve seen that the Melt Up has arrived again.

In the same way that those 1999 IPOs caused a full-blown Melt Up in stocks, I believe we’ll look back at the SpaceX IPO as be the match that ignited the mother of all Melt Ups.

Position yourself for the Melt Up by clicking here.

Regards,

Brett Eversole
Senior Editor & Analyst, Stansberry Research

P.S. Most investors don’t realize the real money – the potentially once-in-a-generation profits – WON’T come from SpaceX.

The Melt Up is already sending stocks soaring in recent months, like Micron, up 986%… SanDisk, up 4,498%… and Bloom Energy, Lumentum, and Planet Labs… ALL UP more than 1,100% in recent months.

But you haven’t missed it yet. I believe the biggest gains are right around the corner. And when the Melt Up spreads to the rest of the market, stocks will take off FAST. I explain everything you need to know right here.




BONUS ARTICLE

BlackRock Just Hit $15 Trillion



Asset managers don’t usually make headlines. BlackRock is not a usual asset manager.

Tuesday morning, BLK reported Q2 2026 results that were not just good. They were the kind of quarter that changes the conversation about what this company actually is. AUM crossed $15 trillion for the first time. The stock is up more than 6% today. And most of Wall Street is still catching up to what just happened.

The Numbers

  • Q2 adjusted EPS: $13.91 vs. consensus of $12.70 (beat by roughly 9.5%)
  • Q2 revenue: $7.08 billion vs. estimate of $6.77 billion, up 31% year over year
  • AUM: Record $15.34 trillion as of June 30, 2026, up 22% year over year
  • Q2 net inflows: $192 billion
  • First-half 2026 net inflows: $321 billion (a record)
  • Trailing 12-month net inflows: $868 billion
  • Adjusted operating margin: 45.9%
  • Organic base fee growth: 10% over the last twelve months
  • Operating income: Up 42% year over year (39% as adjusted)

To put the $15.34 trillion figure in context: that number exceeds the GDP of every country on earth except the United States and China. One company. One quarter.

Analyst Targets (Post-Earnings)

  • Barclays: Overweight, raised target to $1,450 (from $1,340 pre-earnings)
  • Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $1,383
  • Goldman Sachs: Buy, $1,313
  • Keefe Bruyette: Outperform, $1,275
  • Evercore ISI: Outperform (target updated ahead of earnings)
  • Consensus 12-month target: approximately $1,274

BLK is trading around $1,093 today. The consensus target implies roughly 16% upside from here. Barclays at $1,450 implies more than 32%. Even the most cautious major analysts have the stock well above current levels.

What Actually Drove the Beat

Three things are worth separating out. ETFs led the charge, with the iShares platform pulling in the bulk of net inflows during the quarter. That’s not a trend. That’s a structural shift in how both retail and institutional money is managed, and iShares is sitting at the center of it.

Second thread: private markets. BlackRock’s acquisition of HPS Investment Partners, which closed July 1, 2025, contributed meaningfully to this quarter’s results. The company attributed around $230 million of HPS transaction-related fees to the quarter, alongside higher performance fees. The combined HPS platform brought roughly $381 billion in client assets into the BlackRock ecosystem, including approximately $254 billion in private credit. That business carries meaningfully higher margins than index products.

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Third: Aladdin and technology services, which saw 13% growth in technology services and subscription revenue year over year. The platform is now expanding private-markets benchmarking tools through the integration of Preqin. That’s a competitive moat most people overlook when they think about this company.

Slight tangent, but it matters. The U.S. Treasury selected BlackRock’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) as options in the investment lineup for Trump Accounts. That’s a government-linked distribution channel with multi-decade staying power. It doesn’t show up dramatically in any single quarter. Over time, it’s enormous.

Bull / Base / Bear

Bull: Private markets fundraising accelerates. Aladdin adoption continues expanding across wealth management channels. AUM grows toward $17 to $18 trillion by year-end on continued equity market strength and organic flows. Stock pushes toward $1,400.

Base: Current momentum continues at a modestly slower pace. Organic base fee growth stays above 7% but cools slightly from the current 10%. AUM growth tracks equity markets. Stock reaches analyst consensus of approximately $1,274 over the next twelve months.

Bear: Equity markets pull back sharply, dragging AUM and base fees lower simultaneously. HPS integration costs weigh on margins. Stock retreats toward the $1,000 level, which has shown itself as meaningful support across this year’s trading range.

Technical Overlay

BLK has been consolidating below its 52-week intraday high of $1,219.94 for most of 2026, with the stock dipping as low as the high $900s in late June before recovering sharply. Today’s move, with intraday action holding above $1,080 and probing as high as $1,109.99, puts it back in striking distance of that level. If the stock can close decisively above $1,100 with volume, the path to the $1,200 area becomes the working assumption, not the stretch case. The $1,080 level is worth watching as a near-term floor on any pullback.

The Q3 earnings date is estimated for October 13. Between now and then, the key watch item is whether AUM continues building or whether market volatility interrupts the flow momentum. A Fed rate move in either direction would also matter. BlackRock’s fixed-income and money market businesses are rate-sensitive in ways that index AUM is not.

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What changed this quarter isn’t just the numbers. It’s the story about what BlackRock has become. Fifteen trillion in AUM. A risk platform powering competitors. Private credit gaining scale. Government distribution embedded in savings policy. That’s not an asset manager anymore. That’s financial infrastructure. And the market is starting to price it that way.

For informational purposes only.

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