SPCX Lost Half Its Value. Retail Just Bought More.

Market Snapshot

As of Wednesday’s close, SpaceX shares had shed more than half their value from the June 16 peak of $225.64 and were about 20% below the $135 IPO price. Thursday brought a partial recovery: SPCX rose more than 6%, rebounding from an all-time low close a session before.

The stock carries a trailing P/E of -169 and an EPS of -$0.68, with a net margin of -35.66% on trailing revenue of $23 billion. Whatever retail investors are buying, they are not buying it on current earnings power.

Stocks in Focus

SpaceX (SPCX) – The Divergence Trade

The first earnings report as a public company gave bulls and bears identical data and they reached opposite conclusions. Revenue came in at $7.81 billion versus about $6.9 billion expected. Loss per share was $0.09. Revenue jumped 92% from $4.1 billion a year earlier while the net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion.

That would normally be a strong quarter. The number that ended the celebration: capital expenditures jumped to about $18 billion, up from less than $3 billion a year earlier. Most of that went to AI, and management said to expect similar capital expenditures for the next two quarters.

Segment detail is worth noting. Connectivity, which includes Starlink, grew 66% year-over-year to $4.29 billion. Starlink now has 12 million subscribers, doubling from a year earlier.

The cash picture shifted dramatically after the IPO. SpaceX has emphasized that the IPO proceeds strengthened the balance sheet, but the exact cash and debt figures cited here could not be verified from public reporting.

What institutions heard: Large institutional investors were spooked by Q2 capital expenditures of about $18 billion, far above the prior year level. Most of that money is going toward building data centers and other AI-related infrastructure.

What retail heard: “Today’s buying suggests investors continue to view aggressive AI investment as increasing the probability that SpaceX becomes the next long-term winner, rather than a reason to sell,” Vanda Research wrote.

Retail investors have been consistent net buyers of SPCX since the IPO, according to Vanda Research. Individual investors also showed heavy early-session buying during the earnings-driven selloff, with Vanda noting unusually large opening-hour inflows.

Vanda argues retail investors are looking far beyond the next quarterly report. “Retail continue to see SPCX as a transformational AI story – as opposed to a space exploration or interplanetary travel stock,” the firm wrote.

Sector Watch

The SpaceX selloff is not happening in isolation. Following results from Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon, AI costs are under a microscope. The entire market is now stress-testing whether hyperscale AI capex converts to revenue quickly enough to justify current valuations. SpaceX is the newest and most extreme version of that argument.

Management also said on the earnings call that SpaceX will build its AI services exclusively on Nvidia, citing Nvidia’s Vera Rubin architecture. That makes SPCX’s capex decisions directly relevant to semiconductor sector positioning, particularly names tied to AI infrastructure buildout.

Catalyst Calendar

• August 6 (now past): Up to 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for sale Thursday, the first unlock since the company’s June IPO.
• August onward, rolling: Additional lockup expirations are staggered in multiple tranches rather than a single cliff. The precise tranche sizes and dates cited here could not be verified from public reporting.
• Q3 earnings (likely October/November): Another wave of shares is expected to become eligible after Q3 earnings.
• December 2026: The full 180-day lockup expires, bringing a large tranche into play.
• August 12: July CPI data. Any inflation surprise affects the rate path and risk appetite for high-multiple names like SPCX.

Technical Radar

SPCX sits near $110, below its $135 IPO price, with support at $106 and resistance overhead at $118 and $129.

The float math is the harder problem. SpaceX structured the IPO so that less than 5% of its total shares could initially trade. With the first unlock, the number of tradable shares is set to jump sharply, and more shares will become eligible over time.

The performance-based unlock trigger, which would have freed an additional tranche of shares, is nowhere close to firing. The trigger requires SPCX to trade at least 30% above the $135 IPO price for 5 of any 10 trading days. SPCX has done the opposite this month.

Risk Radar

• Supply cascade: Thursday’s 911.5 million share unlock was the first of many. Additional tranches arrive over time. Each one adds potential selling pressure to a stock that has already lost more than half its value from its peak.
• Valuation tension: SpaceX’s valuation still implies investors will have to wait a long time for earnings to grow into its multiples. The specific claim that Phillip Capital issued a sell rating with a $75 target could not be verified from widely available public reporting.
• Capex burn rate: SpaceX is spending aggressively on AI infrastructure, and management indicated capex could remain elevated for the next two quarters. The specific cash flow and capital assets figures cited here could not be verified from widely available public reporting.
• Retail concentration risk: The claim that short interest is about a third of the company’s public float could not be verified from widely available public short-interest data.
• Musk premium discount: Musk defended the outlays and said the resulting growth meant the company would reach $1 trillion in annual revenue faster, shifting the target to 2030 from 2031.

The Cheat Sheet

Top Market Theme: The retail versus institutional split on SPCX is the cleanest expression of two competing market worldviews: AI spending as down payment on dominance, versus AI spending as a profitability problem that cannot be deferred indefinitely.

Stock to Watch: SPCX. SpaceX is navigating a volatile landscape following its first major post-IPO lockup expiry, releasing up to 911.5 million shares into the market. Analysts have warned that a rapidly expanding tradable float can add volatility. The next technical test is $106 support. A break there with volume opens a path toward deeper downside.

Sector to Watch: AI infrastructure. Every major AI capex spender is now being judged on payback timelines, not revenue growth alone. SpaceX management has argued the spend is justified by faster growth. Whether the market accepts that argument over the next 60 days will set the tone for the entire sector.

Biggest Risk: The lockup supply calendar. Locked shares unlock in tranches starting after the first earnings report and continuing beyond year-end. Each unlock adds supply, and supply matters. Retail conviction can absorb a single supply shock. It has not been tested against a rolling one that runs for months.

Biggest Opportunity: Wall Street remains split on what SPCX is worth, with some bullish targets well above current prices. If AI capex translates to durable revenue at the pace management described, the current price reflects maximum pessimism, not realistic fundamentals. The specific claim about $6.7 billion in new cloud deals signed in early Q3 could not be verified from widely available public reporting.

One Thing to Remember: Retail demand for SPCX has been unusually strong since the IPO, according to Vanda Research. That loyalty is real. So is the supply math. Both things can be true, and the next 90 days will determine which one matters more to the price.