Goldman Sachs set a $23 price target on Nu Holdings Thursday, implying roughly 69% upside from Wednesday’s close. That number is bold enough to demand scrutiny. The question is not whether Nubank can open U.S. accounts. It already has. The question is whether the deposit economics that built Latin America’s most profitable digital bank can survive contact with the American market.
Why This Stock Matters Now
Nu Holdings launched U.S. consumer banking on September 10, 2026, marking its first rollout outside Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Rather than waiting for a fully approved national bank charter, it entered through a partnership with Lead Bank, an FDIC-insured institution that holds customer deposits. The Nu Account pays 3.50% APY with no minimum balance and rises to 4.50% APY on balances up to $10,000 if customers also carry the company’s no-fee Mastercard and make at least three purchases every 34 days.
The launch matters not just as a product event but as a valuation event. Goldman analyst Tito Labarta framed the U.S. entry through a size argument: the addressable consumer lending market in the U.S. is $1.5 trillion, seven times larger than Brazil. Grab enough of that, and the earnings math changes fast. Goldman estimates Nu would add roughly $500 million in earnings for every 2% of U.S. market share it captures.
The Investment Thesis
The core argument is that Nubank’s cost structure, not its product line, is the actual competitive weapon. Goldman believes Nu’s ultra-low-cost digital approach combined with a strong consumer experience could allow it to successfully enter the U.S. market. In Brazil, that efficiency has been extraordinary. In the second quarter of 2026, Nu generated more than $1 billion of net income, posted a 33% return on equity, and kept its efficiency ratio at 19.5%. No U.S. bank of comparable scale comes close to that ratio.
The stock is down about 19% year to date in 2026 despite those fundamentals. Over the past three years, earnings per share has increased by 55% annually while the share price has only risen 28% per year, meaning it is significantly lagging earnings growth. That gap is the opening Goldman is pricing.
What’s Changing
The strategic playbook targets consumers who feel underserved by incumbents, focusing on Hispanic communities and younger demographics in the U.S. That is a defined beachhead rather than a broad assault on JPMorgan’s deposit base. The U.S. push places Nu closer to digital-finance players SoFi Technologies and Chime, while Nu Global, its multicurrency stablecoin account, opens another route to build customer relationships internationally.
Revolut is chasing a similar prize. Revolut and Nubank, the world’s two most-valued digital banks, both obtained conditional approval for U.S. banking charters this year, but both face challenges cracking a highly competitive U.S. banking market. Revolut’s conditional OCC approval came with restrictions: the OCC approved the charter but gated four product lines behind separate supervisory sign-offs. Neither company holds deposits on its own balance sheet yet. The full U.S. bank charter is the single most important catalyst on the horizon, with Nubank N.A. expected to begin operating in 2027.
The Risks
The partner-bank model is a bridge, not a destination. Until Nubank N.A. holds its own charter, deposit costs are structurally higher and product flexibility is limited. Sky-high marketing costs could pose a risk to Nu’s expansion, though Goldman notes that Nu has consistently demonstrated an ability to grow without overspending. The U.S. expansion is expected to hit the consolidated efficiency ratio by approximately 100 basis points, with CEO David Vélez projecting a cost impact of $200 to $300 million. The 20% efficiency ratio that impressed investors in Brazil will widen before it narrows again.
Delinquencies are also worth watching. Despite strong Q2 profitability, delinquencies have ticked higher to 6.9%, a number that carries more weight when Nu is simultaneously absorbing U.S. launch costs and a weaker Brazilian macro backdrop.
Bottom Line
Of the 18 analysts covering Nu Holdings, 15 have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. The consensus is unusually tight for a company with this many open questions. Goldman’s $23 target is achievable if U.S. deposit costs stay manageable and the charter lands on schedule in 2027. But the 69% gap between that target and today’s price is not mispricing so much as uncertainty premium. Investors who believe the Brazil model travels should be watching the efficiency ratio through the next two quarters. That number will say more about U.S. viability than any analyst note.
