September 7, 2026
The Army’s $464.8M laser award changes the long view, not the quarter AVAV reports in two days.
AeroVironment reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the close on Wednesday, September 9. The quarter ended August 1, which means it captured none of the $464.8 million Army directed-energy contract awarded September 2. What it does capture is the first full period under the weight of a GAAP loss year, a reset guidance bar, and a business that management has already told investors will be heavily back-half loaded.
Inside the SpaceX S-1, Elon’s New AI Disruption Revealed
You will NOT believe what Elon Musk is doing next. Hidden inside the SpaceX S-1 is the master plan for Elon’s next big disruption.
It could transform the world… rewrite the rules of AI… And create the most valuable company EVER. This is the AI story no one’s talking about… yet.
Get the name and ticker here of the No. 1 way to play it, free of charge.
Analyst Targets
- Stifel (Jonathan Siegmann): Buy, $220 target, reiterated September 3
- Jefferies: Buy, reaffirmed September 3 (reported with an unchanged $205 target)
- Consensus: Average target ~$226, 83% Buy
The Setup Heading Into Wednesday
Consensus sits at roughly $0.30 in adjusted EPS for the quarter. That is a low bar by recent history. AeroVironment’s Q4 FY2026 release, reported June 29, delivered non-GAAP EPS of $1.84, with revenue of $641.6 million up 133% year over year. The problem is sequentiality: management has guided full FY2027 toward revenue of $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion with GAAP net income of just $8 million to $24 million for the entire year, and explicitly flagged that results are heavily weighted to the second half.
Against that backdrop, Wednesday’s quarter is largely about confirming the ramp is on track, not delivering a beat large enough to move the stock off its 52-week low territory. AVAV closed September 4 at $144.65, down roughly 65% from its 52-week high of $417.86.
What the Laser Award Actually Does
The Army’s $464.8 million E-HEL contract for AeroVironment’s LOCUST X3 laser weapon system, announced September 2, is genuinely significant. The Army and the company have described it as the first production contract for a high-energy laser weapon. But investors need to read carefully: Stifel’s Siegmann projects the contract will generate an average of $80 million to $100 million per year over a five-year performance period, and early unit deliveries are likely already embedded in the company’s existing FY2027 financial outlook. The award validates the technology and anchors the Space and Directed Energy segment’s long-term growth path. It does not change Wednesday’s numbers.
410 new millionaires a day?
According to Bryan Bottarelli, “If my math is correct, what I’m revealing could generate as many as 410 new millionaires a day.” Bryan explains everything – including how to find out about his #1 stock – in this short presentation.
The Section 232 drone tariffs that took effect September 3, imposing 100% duties on imported unmanned aircraft systems with a maximum takeoff weight above 25 kilograms and drones with thermal imaging capability, are more immediately relevant to AeroVironment’s competitive position. A domestically manufactured product line becomes structurally more attractive when foreign competitors face a doubling of their landed cost. The question on the call will be whether management quantifies that competitive moat or stays cautious given how quickly tariff policy has moved this year.
Forward Scenarios
Bull: AVAV reports near or above the $0.30 consensus, raises full-year color on E-HEL revenue timing, and management cites the Section 232 environment as a source of incremental pipeline. The stock tests resistance near $153.
Base: Results land in line. Management reiterates FY2027 guidance of $2.125B-$2.225B in revenue, maintains the back-half weighting commentary, and the stock reacts modestly. The E-HEL award absorbs headline attention without shifting the earnings model this quarter.
7 AI Stocks to Invest in Today
AI is fueling the Fourth Industrial Revolution – and these 7 stocks are front and center. One of them makes $40K accelerator chips with a full-stack platform that all but guarantees wide adoption. Another powers the . From core infrastructure to automation leaders, these companies and other leaders are all in 7 AI Stocks to Invest in Today.
Bear: A miss on the low $0.30 consensus, margin pressure from the CapEx buildout (guided at 12-14% of revenue), or negative free cash flow commentary triggers another leg lower toward the 52-week low of $135.20. Ongoing shareholder litigation adds overhang.
Bottom Line
The real debate around AVAV is not Wednesday’s quarter. It is whether the directed energy franchise, a $1.2 billion funded backlog, and the Pentagon’s accelerating counter-UAS spending can justify a stock trading at roughly half its year-ago price. Wednesday’s call is a chance to show the ramp is credible. It is not a catalyst in itself. Watch the commentary on E-HEL delivery timing and any updated language on free cash flow. Those two answers will tell you more than the headline EPS number.
