Trump to “roll back” SpaceX IPO?

June 28, 2026

Allstate’s Best Quarter in Years

Featured: Allstate’s Best Quarter in Years


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Allstate’s Best Quarter in Years

Most of the market was too busy watching AI stocks in Q1. Allstate quietly posted one of the cleaner quarters in the insurance sector’s recent history. The stock is trading near the top of its 52-week range, with a forward P/E of roughly 8.7, and the earnings power behind it now looks structurally different than it did two years ago.

That part of the story deserves more attention than it’s getting.

The Quarter That Changed the Model

Q1 2026 was reported April 29. Adjusted EPS came in at $10.65 against a consensus estimate of roughly $7.28 — a beat of approximately 46%. Net income applicable to common shareholders reached $2.4 billion, up sharply from $566 million in the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue of $16.941 billion grew 3% year over year, though it came in slightly below some analyst estimates on the top line.

The underwriting story was even better than the headline numbers suggest. The Property-Liability combined ratio improved 15.4 points to 82.0, as catastrophe losses fell sharply versus the prior year quarter. Homeowners insurance swung from a $451 million underwriting loss to a $685 million profit. Investment income rose 9.8%.

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Policies in force reached 212 million — gains in both auto and homeowners, across distribution channels. Auto market share increased in 57% of states. Homeowners market share grew in 83% of states.

And then there is the capital return picture. Allstate returned $881 million to shareholders in Q1 alone, on top of a newly authorized $4 billion buyback program and a quarterly dividend of $1.08 per share (declared May 22, 2026). The payout ratio is low enough that it barely functions as a constraint on the buyback math.

What Actually Drove This

The 2022-2023 insurance cycle was brutal. Auto claims costs exploded post-pandemic — used car prices, labor rates, parts inflation — and carriers that had underpriced risk got torched. Allstate responded by pushing through aggressive rate increases across dozens of states and tightening underwriting standards. That work is now showing up in the combined ratio.

The auto combined ratio improved to 81.9 in Q1 2026, a 9.4 point improvement from the prior year. Most of that came from $838 million in prior-year reserve releases as estimated claims costs for 2023 through 2025 were revised lower — boosting the quarterly combined ratio by 8.8 points on their own. Strip those out and the underlying auto combined ratio was 89.5, still a 1.7 point improvement. The core business is healthier, not just optically cleaner.

Slight tangent, but it matters: Allstate is actively building out what it calls its ALLIE agentic AI ecosystem, targeting improvements in service operations and claims processing. That is not a 2026 earnings driver — more of a 2027-2028 margin lever. But it is being built while the core underwriting recovery is already flowing through results.

The Analyst Picture

Goldman Sachs downgraded ALL from Buy to Neutral on March 5, cutting its target from $239 to $231. The cited concerns spanned distribution strategy, autonomous vehicle positioning, affordability, and premium growth challenges. Those are longer-term structural questions that the near-term earnings strength has, at least temporarily, overshadowed.

Since then, Keefe Bruyette cut its price target from $266 to $242 on June 8. The consensus across 16 analysts sits around $241-$242 as of late June — modest upside from current levels. Raymond James and KBW had been among the more constructive voices coming out of Q1, citing policy growth and buyback activity as key supports.

Forward Scenarios

Bull: A relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season keeps Q2 catastrophe losses from escalating further beyond what is already on the books. The underlying combined ratio holds in the high 80s. Buyback math accelerates EPS growth. A valuation re-rating toward 11-12x forward earnings closes the gap to fair value.

Base: Moderate additional storm activity produces elevated but manageable losses in Q2. Combined ratio drifts back toward the low 90s. Stock holds current levels and grinds higher on capital returns alone.

Bear: A major hurricane event in Q2 drives catastrophe losses well above seasonal norms, compounding the $1.16 billion already recorded in April and May. The homeowners underwriting swing reverses. Reserve releases normalize or turn negative. Q1’s strength gets reclassified as a one-quarter event rather than a trend.

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Technical Read

ALL hit an all-time closing high of $223.40 in mid-May 2026 before pulling back. The 52-week range runs from roughly $188 to $228. The stock is trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Resistance sits near the recent highs around $223-$228. The forward P/E of 8.7 is below the industry median, which does most of the work in the bull case on valuation.

What to Watch

  • Q2 2026 earnings: estimated July 29, 2026 (date subject to confirmation)
  • Atlantic hurricane season activity through June-September
  • April catastrophe losses of $870 million and May losses of $289 million — combined Q2 headwind of $1.16 billion already disclosed
  • Auto combined ratio trajectory as reserve releases normalize
  • Homeowners pricing strategy as the company leans into underwriting profitability
  • Policy retention trends in non-standard auto, flagged by Goldman as a margin risk

The April and May catastrophe disclosures are the part of this story that gets glossed over. Allstate has already flagged $870 million in April losses and $289 million in May losses — $1.16 billion combined heading into Q2 results. That is a meaningful headwind. How those losses interact with the underlying underwriting improvement will define whether Q1 was a turning point or simply a peak.

At a forward P/E of 8.7, the bar is not high. But hurricane season does not check valuations before landfall.

For informational purposes only.

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