July 13, 2026
Eli Lilly Is Growing Like a Software Company
The valuation debate is loud. Q2 earnings on August 5 could reset the story.
First a note from Reagan Gold
One signature. The largest wealth transfer into gold in modern history.
One executive order. One policy shift.
That’s all that stands between today’s gold price and the largest wealth transfer into gold in modern American history.
Here’s what most Americans don’t know:
Trump has spoken publicly about America’s “golden era.” He’s questioned why the U.S. doesn’t “sell” its gold. And for 50 years, Washington has carried 8,133 tonnes of gold on its books at a fraction of today’s market price.
The last time America saw this combination of inflation, debt, and monetary pressure – the 1970s – gold rose 2,300%.
They didn’t have a Trump executive order on the table.
This time, we do.
Most people miss major monetary events because by the time it becomes news, it’s too late to act at advantaged prices.
The question isn’t whether this happens. It’s whether you’ll be positioned when it does.
Eli Lilly Is Growing Like a Software Company
Let me tell you what a pharmaceutical company that generates $19.8 billion in a single quarter looks like. It looks like Eli Lilly (LLY) right now.
Q1 2026 revenue came in at $19.8 billion, up 56% year-over-year, beating the analyst consensus of $17.62 billion by more than $2.1 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $8.55, blowing past the $6.66 consensus by nearly 29%. Net income on a GAAP basis hit $7.4 billion, up 168% from a year ago. Gross margin came in at 82.6% of revenue. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $82 billion to $85 billion, implying roughly 25% to 28% top-line growth for the full year. Full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance was raised to $35.50 to $37.00, up from the prior range of $33.50 to $35.00.
This is not how drug companies are supposed to behave. This is how cloud platforms behave during hypergrowth.
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What Is Actually Driving This
GLP-1 drugs. Specifically, tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. Mounjaro generated $8.7 billion in Q1 2026, up 125% year-over-year. Zepbound brought in $4.16 billion, up 80%. Together, Mounjaro and Zepbound contributed $12.8 billion in combined global revenue, adding $6.7 billion of new growth versus the same quarter a year earlier. Those two numbers represent one of the fastest-growing drug franchises in pharmaceutical history.
Lilly entered 2026 with a new weapon. On April 1, 2026, the FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron), the company’s once-daily weight-loss pill, a small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist that can be taken any time of day without food or water restrictions. That opened an oral GLP-1 chapter that Novo Nordisk was first to enter but Lilly is determined to compete in aggressively. Early uptake has been gradual, as expected for a new pill using a different active ingredient than the injections. But the injectable business is growing fast enough that the ramp timeline barely registers as a concern right now.
Here is where it gets interesting. Retatrutide, Lilly’s triple-acting tri-agonist targeting GIP, GLP-1, and glucagon receptors, has now cleared Phase 3. The pivotal TRIUMPH-1 trial confirmed 28.3% average weight loss at 80 weeks in 2,339 patients, with 45.3% of patients on the 12mg dose losing 30% or more of their body weight. A pre-specified extension to 104 weeks showed average weight loss reaching 30.3% in patients with a BMI of 35 or above. An NDA filing is expected in Q4 2026. If retatrutide clears regulatory hurdles, Lilly does not just hold the top spot in GLP-1 — it extends the lead by several years.
The Novo Nordisk Angle
The comparison to Novo Nordisk (NVO) is unavoidable. Both companies are fighting for the same patients, the same prescriptions, and the same market that analysts expect to reach $100 billion by the end of the decade.
Novo was first to market with both an injectable and an oral pill. Its oral semaglutide program has shown around 15% weight loss in clinical data for its higher-dose obesity-focused version.
Novo warned earlier this year that it expects 2026 adjusted sales growth to be negative, in the range of -5% to -13% at constant exchange rates, reflecting headwinds in its U.S. operations. That is a stark contrast to Lilly’s raised guidance. The two companies are running very different races right now.
If you want the leader, you pay for it. If you want the cheaper entry, Novo is the discounted option. The right answer depends entirely on your time horizon and risk tolerance.
The Valuation Problem
LLY trades around $1,189, near a fresh all-time high of $1,249.45 set just last week. The stock is up roughly 14% year-to-date and about 7.5% over the past month. The trailing P/E sits around 42x to 44x. That is not cheap. But here is the thing — earnings growth has been running well ahead of the stock price for several years. Non-GAAP EPS grew 156% in Q1 year-over-year alone.
The forward picture: management guided to non-GAAP EPS of $35.50 to $37.00 for full-year 2026. JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott raised his price target to $1,400 on July 7, well above the Wall Street consensus of roughly $1,273 to $1,305. He called Lilly his top pick and estimated total Q2 sales of about $20.7 billion, roughly $300 million above consensus, citing continued international Mounjaro expansion as the key driver.
Bank of America raised its target to $1,334 on July 10. Truist raised to $1,370 on July 9. RBC Capital went to $1,500 on July 8. None of those calls reads like hype — they are tracking the earnings trajectory and the broadening access story.
A P/E of 42x looks rich until you notice non-GAAP EPS jumped 156% year-over-year in the most recent quarter. Growth at that pace tends to compress multiples faster than people expect.
The Medicare Wildcard
One development that is not getting enough attention: starting July 1, 2026, the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program made Zepbound and Foundayo available to eligible patients for as little as $50 a month. Analysts estimate as many as 20 million Medicare patients could potentially qualify for obesity drugs under this program. The U.S. obesity rate sits around 40% of adults. GLP-1 penetration is still in the low single digits. The runway is long.
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Biden’s smell hadn’t even left the Oval Office yet…
And Trump got to work immediately on the most secretive government operation since the Manhattan Project.
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Because Trump saw the writing on the wall: These files were about to destroy everything we love about America.
Bull. Base. Bear.
Bull case: Q2 earnings on August 5 deliver another beat and guidance raise. Foundayo uptake accelerates in H2. Retatrutide files its NDA on schedule in Q4 2026. Medicare access broadens. The stock moves toward $1,400 to $1,500.
Base case: Revenue grows 25% to 28% for the year as guided. The oral pill ramp is gradual through year-end. Lilly holds market share against Novo. Stock drifts between $1,100 and $1,300 as earnings growth continues catching up to price.
Bear case: Compounding pharmacies find ways to keep producing cheaper tirzepatide versions despite regulatory pressure. A clinical setback hits retatrutide. Pricing pressure in the U.S. outpaces volume gains. The valuation at 40x-plus forward earnings compresses hard on any earnings miss. The 52-week low sits at $623.78 — a reminder that this stock is not immune to sharp drawdowns.
What to Watch
- Q2 earnings on August 5: Mounjaro and Zepbound combined quarterly revenue — watch for $15 billion or more
- Full-year revenue guidance: currently $82B to $85B; any raise is a positive signal
- Foundayo prescription trends: oral pill early uptake data becomes more meaningful in H2
- Retatrutide NDA filing: Q4 2026 is the current target following TRIUMPH-1 data
- Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program expansion: any move toward permanence unlocks a large new patient cohort
- Novo Nordisk prescription share: if Wegovy keeps losing ground, Lilly’s position widens further
- Compounding pharmacy risk: the 503B regulatory outcome remains a key watch
The GLP-1 market that analysts are pricing at $100 billion by the end of the decade is not speculative anymore. The prescriptions are happening. Global GLP-1 use is expected to climb from roughly 20 million patients at end of 2025 to 30 million by end of 2026. The question is who owns the most of that market three years from now.
Right now, Eli Lilly is the answer. Whether the stock is cheap at $1,189 with a 42x multiple is genuinely debatable. What is not debatable is that the underlying business is doing something almost no pharmaceutical company has ever done at this scale, this fast. August 5 will tell us how much further that can run.
For informational purposes only.
