September 23, 2026
Bonus Content: SanDisk Surges on a $2,400 Target. Micron Reports Sep. 30.
Early to America’s Next Defense Boom?
Sometimes Wall Street only needs one headline.
When a report named possible contenders for a $1.1 billion Pentagon drone contract, shares in the sector jumped as much as 57% in a single afternoon.
Another American drone manufacturer has climbed more than 700% from its 2024 IPO price.
Those moves do not guarantee what happens next. But they show how quickly investor money can move when Wall Street sees government demand building behind an emerging industry.
Yet, this little-known drone company is still trading under $5 on the Nasdaq… for now.
It has more than 25 years of experience, a growing patent portfolio and drone technology already used in real world missions.
Still, it has not received the same level of investor attention as some of the market’s earlier winners.
The question may not be whether drone companies can rally. It may be which overlooked name Wall Street discovers next.
SanDisk Surges on a $2,400 Target. Micron Reports Sep. 30.
Analyst Targets
- Rosenblatt: Buy, $2,400 (initiated September 22)
- Goldman Sachs: $2,200
- Mizuho: $1,900
- RBC Capital Markets: $1,600, Sector Perform
- Consensus (24 analysts): Buy, average target ~$2,125
The Move That Mattered
On September 22, Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage on SanDisk with a Buy rating and a target of $2,400. Shares closed at $1,887.04, up 6.82% on the session. The target implies 35.9% upside from the September 21 close of $1,766.64. That gap is large enough to matter. On a stock already up roughly 679% year-to-date, a fresh street-high from a credible voice still moves the room.
Micron rose about 3% and the DRAM ETF gained 2.03% on the AI-memory read-through. Memory equities diverged from the broader market with unusual clarity.
What Rosenblatt Is Actually Saying
Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy argued that AI workloads are transforming NAND flash from a commodity into critical computing infrastructure. The pricing logic follows from that repositioning. Cassidy argues the competitive landscape in NAND is shifting from price wars to a focus on storage density, performance, durability, and supply stability. That is a margin story, not a volume story, and it is the reason the $2,400 target sits well above most of the street.
SanDisk’s datacenter revenue surged from $960 million in FY25 to $5.153 billion in FY26. The company reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 84.6% in its fiscal fourth quarter, with management guiding fiscal Q1 2027 gross margin of 83.0% to 84.9%. Those are not commodity economics.
Cassidy flagged new SanDisk customer agreements covering an estimated two-thirds of fiscal 2028 production as the key to breaking NAND’s boom-bust cycle. SanDisk has said it signed NBMs with eight customers, representing approximately 50% of bits in FY2027 and approximately two-thirds of bits in FY2028, and has disclosed new agreements worth a minimum of $93.9 billion. The company guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion.
The Macro Frame: Memory Is No Longer Cyclical in the Same Way
HBM supply for 2026 is widely described as tight, and HBM4 has begun shipping to support Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform. Samsung and SK Hynix are capacity-constrained in HBM. The shortage is structural, not seasonal.
SanDisk’s momentum also received a boost from its addition to the S&P 100, effective prior to the open on September 21. Index-driven demand is incremental and persistent. It is not the reason to own the stock at $1,800, but it reduces the seller base.
Now the Setup: Micron Reports September 30
Micron’s June guidance called for $50.0 billion in revenue and $31.00 in non-GAAP EPS for fiscal Q4 2026. Wall Street consensus as of September 21 sits near $50.6 billion in revenue and $31.27 EPS. The beat bar is real, but it is not the only bar that matters.
Guidance language is king. Q4 numbers matter less than forward guidance. Any softening language around HBM pricing or demand sustainability could trigger a sell-the-news reaction even on a beat. The options market is pricing an expected move of approximately 10.3% around the September 30 report.
Micron trades at roughly the mid-teens multiple of forward earnings, despite $50 billion Q4 revenue guidance and 92% analyst buy ratings. Management has said it has signed 16 Strategic Customer Agreements, and that 14 of them represent approximately $100 billion of cumulative revenue at minimum contract prices over the remaining agreement term. That contracted visibility is a key variable for the forward multiple.
Bull / Base / Bear
Bull: Micron delivers $51 billion-plus in revenue, raises FY27 HBM guidance, and confirms supply is still sold out into 2028. The SanDisk AI-NAND thesis gets a DRAM confirmation. Both stocks re-rate higher.
Base: Micron hits consensus, guidance comes in line, and HBM commentary is cautiously constructive. Stocks hold recent gains without extending them materially. SanDisk consolidates near $1,800.
Bear: Micron beats on revenue but softens HBM pricing commentary or flags any customer push-out. The gap between current prices and peak cycle earnings compresses fast. After prior earnings, shares have seen sharp pullbacks in the following weeks as traders rotated. That pattern is a live risk.
Technical Overlay
SanDisk’s 52-week high is $2,354.39, and the Rosenblatt $2,400 target sits just above it. The stock closed Tuesday at $1,887.04, leaving roughly 25% to the prior high. For Micron, $1,095 is the key resistance level. A sustained break above it before earnings would signal strong conviction buying; a rejection could indicate sell-the-news dynamics.
Bottom Line
The Rosenblatt initiation is not a short-term trading call. It is a thesis about what NAND flash becomes in an AI infrastructure world: a contracted, margin-rich component rather than a spot-priced commodity. The call arrives after SanDisk has already rallied roughly 679% year-to-date. Believers are already positioned. The real question is whether Micron’s September 30 report confirms the demand assumptions embedded in every memory stock at these prices. If HBM guidance holds and contracted revenue visibility extends into 2028, the SanDisk thesis gets a second data point. If it does not, the sector’s vertical move has a problem that a $2,400 target cannot solve.
