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Analyst Targets

• TD Cowen: Buy, $144 (cut from $154, Oct. 12)
• Citigroup: Buy, upgraded from Market Outperform (Oct. 13)
• Morgan Stanley: $165 (cut from $184, Oct. 17)
• UBS: Neutral, $116 (cut from $122, Oct. 13)
• Barclays: Equal Weight, $124 (cut from $128, Oct. 8)
• Wells Fargo: Equal Weight, $122 (initiated Oct. 2)
• Average consensus target: ~$144.65; stock near $106–109

The Numbers to Beat

Blackstone reports Q3 2026 before the open on Thursday, October 22. Consensus sits at $1.29 to $1.31 per share on roughly $3.35 to $3.36 billion of revenue. That would represent a year-over-year earnings decline of nearly 14% against Q3 2025’s $1.52. Last quarter, Blackstone beat by $0.18, posting $1.52 against a $1.34 estimate on $5.04 billion of revenue. The bar is lower this time, but the context surrounding it is considerably more complicated.

AUM continues to grow, most recently reported at about $1.35 trillion through Q2. Fee-related earnings are the metric the street watches most closely for multiple support. Any deterioration there, rather than headline EPS, would matter more to the stock’s reaction.

Why Thursday Is Bigger Than the EPS Line

Two developments arrived this week that reframe the earnings call entirely.

First, the Financial Times reported that Anthropic has offered Blackstone a coupon around 10% (and a higher total return once discounts and fees are included) to anchor a $9 billion junior slice of a $60 billion Broadcom-arranged debt package tied to Google TPU leases. For context: the senior tranches of the same structure, backed by Broadcom credit support, have been discussed in the mid-5% range. The junior tranche that Blackstone is being asked to anchor prices like high yield because the collateral, depreciating chips whose residual value depends on Anthropic’s growth continuing uninterrupted, carries real uncertainty. Four months ago, the equivalent junior slice on the June deal went out at 8.5%. It is now around 10%.

Second, Bloomberg reported that Moody’s put the real default rate in US private credit at 5.8% in a recent report. The headline figure of 4.0% across 607 borrowers jumps to 5.8% once payment-in-kind amendments and maturity extensions involving distressed issuers are counted as default-equivalent events. This matters directly to Blackstone Credit & Insurance, including BCRED, which is one of the largest private credit vehicles in the market. If the asset class’s true stress is higher than reported, fee revenue, deployment pace, and eventual realizations all face pressure.

Macro and Industry Context

The high-yield market is already pricing in the discomfort. CoreWeave’s 2032 bonds, issued at 9.625% in June, were trading at about a 15% yield by mid-October. All four high-yield data center bond deals since July priced at a discount. JPMorgan and MUFG have spent more than six months trying to distribute $38 billion in Oracle-linked data center construction debt. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.30% earlier this month, its highest since 2002, making every leveraged structure more expensive to defend.

Blackstone sits at the exact center of this stress. It is the firm the market calls when public credit closes its doors.

Bull / Base / Bear

Bull: Blackstone beats the $1.31 estimate, AUM inflows surprise to the upside, and management frames the Anthropic offer as a high-yield substitute that demonstrates pricing power. The stock reclaims $120.

Base: Results land in-line, management acknowledges the private credit default debate without alarm, and the stock trades sideways near current levels pending clarity on whether BX accepts the Anthropic junior tranche.

Bear: Fee-related earnings disappoint, management signals slower deployment due to market conditions, and confirmation that BX is anchoring the Anthropic junior debt at 10%-plus prompts questions about how much more of this paper sits on the platform. The stock tests its 52-week low of $101.73.

Technical Overlay

BX opened near $106 earlier this week. The 52-week range runs from $101.73 to $166.39. The stock is trading below every meaningful moving average, with a beta of 1.59. A clean earnings beat could trigger a sharp recovery toward $120 to $124 resistance. A miss closes the gap toward the $101.73 floor quickly.

What Investors Should Watch

• Fee-related earnings: The multiple-supporting metric, more than distributable EPS.
• Management commentary on BCRED and private credit deployment pace in light of the Moody’s default data.
• Any formal announcement on the Anthropic junior tranche: Acceptance signals risk appetite; refusal signals the firm sees better risk-reward elsewhere.
• Inflow figures: Whether institutional allocators are slowing commitments to private credit broadly.

Bottom Line

The earnings number itself is almost secondary. Blackstone is being asked, publicly and in real time, to put a price on what AI compute debt is actually worth when the public market refuses to touch it. Thursday’s call will tell investors whether management sees the 10%-plus coupon on junk-rated chip collateral as an opportunity or a warning. That answer, not the EPS beat or miss, determines what BX does next.