Rocket Lab reports third-quarter 2026 earnings after the US close on November 9, with analysts expecting about $257 million in revenue and a conference call at 5 PM Eastern. That figure represents about 66% year-over-year growth. Shares fell 12.18% to $45.99 on November 5, then rebounded sharply, climbing about 15% to $53.07 on Friday. The stock is down roughly 24% year to date.
The revenue number matters. What comes after it matters more.
Why This Stock Now
Rocket Lab and Iridium Communications have entered into a definitive agreement under which Rocket Lab will acquire Iridium. The acquisition would transform the company from a launch provider into a vertically integrated space company with an operational LEO constellation. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approval, and is expected to close in 2027. If it does, Rocket Lab inherits L-band spectrum and recurring service revenue that no competitor can replicate quickly.
The Business
First-quarter 2026 revenue hit a record $200.3 million, a 63.5% increase year over year. The second quarter achieved a record $234 million, up 62% year over year, with backlog growing to $2.36 billion. The company secured a $266 million Space Force contract for 12 suborbital launches supporting missile defense programs and a $397 million contract to build, launch, and operate Flatellite satellites for the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator program.
The Iridium transaction will more than double Rocket Lab’s revenue: in 2025, Rocket Lab’s full-year revenue was $602 million, while Iridium’s was about $872 million. Iridium’s Q3 2026 service revenue climbed 13% year over year to $187.5 million.
What Is Driving the Opportunity
Rocket Lab recently announced a delay in the Neutron rocket launch into 2027 after identifying an issue with the manufacturing process for the propellant domes on the first-stage tank. The delay has been characterized as a timing setback rather than a thesis change, as the company is using the extended timeline to pull forward upgrades to Neutron. The delay removes a near-term catalyst and raises development costs. Rocket Lab’s current price-to-sales ratio stands at 39.7x, well above its historical median of 19.3x. The consensus one-year analyst target stands at $102.15, nearly double Friday’s price.
What Could Go Wrong
Recent coverage centers on strong revenue growth, the pending Iridium transaction, rising cash use, and dilution risk. The Iridium deal is structured partly as a share-based transaction, compounding pressure on a stock already posting per-share losses. In the last five years there are 19 earnings releases, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, positive 47% of the time. Regulatory approval for the Iridium deal is not guaranteed, and any block would strip the company of its most significant near-term catalyst.
The Bottom Line
Rocket Lab is not a traditional value proposition. The acquisition changes the character of Rocket Lab’s revenue as much as the customer list. Tonight’s results will tell investors whether revenue growth is accelerating toward the vertical integration vision or whether costs are running ahead of it. The Iridium timeline determines whether the thesis holds. That question, more than any quarterly EPS figure, is what the market will be listening for at 5 PM.
